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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation's foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling One of The Wall Street Journal's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year “Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book ReviewMost predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table t

Who reads The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Dont?

Author

Nate Silver

Publisher

Penguin Books US

Published

2012

Language

EN

ISBN

9781846147524

Category

mathematics

Subjects

Political Science, Mathematics, Business

Rating

3.97 / 5 (27,729 ratings)

Updated

2026-03-14