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Have Precipitation Extremes and Annual Totals Been Increasing in the World's Dry Regions Over the Last 60 Years? by Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Heimann, Martin; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus is a scholarly article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Have Precipitation Extremes and Annual Totals Been Increasing in the World's Dry Regions Over the Last 60 Years? about?

Daily rainfall extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the last decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these global tendencies have not been shown to consistently affect land regions with limited moisture availability. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2941), now identified rapid increases in globally aggregated dry region daily extreme rainfall and annual rainfall totals. Here, we reassess the respective analysis and find that a) statistical artifacts introduced by the choice of the reference period prior to data standardization lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40%, and also that b) the definition of `dry regions of the globe' affect the reported globally aggregated trends in extreme rainfall. Using the same observational dataset, but accounting for the statistical artifacts and using alternative, well-established dryness definitions, we find no significant increases in heavy precipitation in the world's dry regions. Adequate data pre-processing approaches and accounting fo

Author

Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Heimann, Martin; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus

Published

2016

Language

EN