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Simulating the Arrival of Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections that Triggered the Gannon Superstorm on May 10, 2024 by Thampi, Smitha V.; Bhaskar, Ankush; Mayank, Prateek; Vaidya, Bhargav; Venugopal, Indu is a scholarly article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Simulating the Arrival of Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections that Triggered the Gannon Superstorm on May 10, 2024 about?

The May 10, 2024 space weather event stands out as the most powerful storm recorded during the current solar cycle. This study employs a numerical framework utilizing a semi-empirical coronal model, along with HUXt (Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time-dependence) and cone-CME models for the inner heliosphere, to forecast solar wind velocity and the arrival of CMEs associated with this event. The simulations were also carried out using Space Weather Adaptive SimulaTion (SWASTi) and a drag-based model (DBM) for this complex event of multiple CMEs. Predicted arrival times and velocities from these models are compared with actual observations at the Sun-Earth L1 point. These simulations reveal that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) reached Earth nearly simultaneously, resulting in the extreme space weather event, followed by the arrival of a few more eruptions. The simulations accurately predicted arrival times with a discrepancy of approximately 5 hours or less for these CMEs. Further, the ensemble study of DBM shows the sensitivity of the CME arrival time to the background solar wind speed and drag parameters. All three models have done fairly well in reproducing the arriva

Author

Thampi, Smitha V.; Bhaskar, Ankush; Mayank, Prateek; Vaidya, Bhargav; Venugopal, Indu

Published

2024

Language

EN