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Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route by Zheng Chang; Xuzhuo He; Hanwen Fan; Wei Guan; Linsheng He is a Engineering article available to read on EtoBox.

What is Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route about?

The China–Australia Route, which serves as the southern economic corridor of the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, bears great importance in safeguarding maritime transportation operations. This route plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and efficiency of such activities. To pre-assess the risks of this route, this paper presents a two-stage analytical framework that combines fault tree analysis and Bayesian network for evaluating the occurrence likelihood of risk of transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the China–Australia Route. In the first stage, our study involved the identification of 22 risk influencing factors drawn from a comprehensive review of pertinent literature and an in-depth analysis of accident reports. These identified factors were then utilized as basic events to construct a fault tree. Later, we applied an expert comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy set theory, and by introducing voting mechanism into expert opinions, the prior probability of basic events was calculated. In the second stage, a fault tree was transformed into a Bayesian network, which overcame the deficiency that the structure and conditional probability table of the Bayesian

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Author

Zheng Chang; Xuzhuo He; Hanwen Fan; Wei Guan; Linsheng He

Publisher

MDPI AG

Published

2023

Language

EN

Field

Engineering (Physical Sciences)