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Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities by Daihai He; Lixin Lin; Yael Artzy-Randrup; Haydar Demirhan; Benjamin J. Cowling; Lewi Stone is a Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology article available to read on EtoBox.
What is Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities about?
## Significance The nearby cities of Iquitos (Peru) and Manaus (Brazil) experienced the world’s highest infection and mortality rates during the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. Key studies suggested that >70% of the city populations were infected in this wave and thus close to herd immunity and protected. It remains an enigma as to why a deadly second wave followed in Manaus worse than the first. To resolve this, we present a data-driven model of epidemic dynamics in Iquitos which we use to help explain and model events in Manaus. The partially observed Markov process model simultaneous fits a flexible “variable R~0~”, estimates long-term immunity waning and impulsive immune evasion, and thus provides a comprehensive framework for characterizing and modeling new variants of concern.
Who reads Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities?
It is typically read by researchers, students, and practitioners in Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology.
- Author
- Daihai He; Lixin Lin; Yael Artzy-Randrup; Haydar Demirhan; Benjamin J. Cowling; Lewi Stone
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2023
- Language
- EN
- Field
- Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (Life Sciences)