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The prediction of rainfall events using WRF (weather research and forecasting) model with ensemble technique by Sofiati, I; Nurlatifah, A is a Agricultural and Biological Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

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Abstract The research of ensemble technique has become popular in recent years, which can produce probabilistic predictions of rainfall on a short or medium scale. Prediction ensemble is a model formed by combining the predictive system model; the models used was member. This study aims to analyse the ability of the ensemble method in predicting rainfall events in Cilacap (07°45’ S, 109°02’ E) and Denpasar (08°37’ S, 115°13’ E). Data processing used ensemble equation; its ensemble member consisted of four members of running model WRF-ARW every cycle (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC). In general, during the period of July 1 to 20 and February 1 to 20, 2016, the results of the models both single model and ensemble technique show that the model underestimate in predicting rainfall. Nevertheless, the single and three models of ensemble prediction methods estimated dry conditions very well but failed to predict the event of heavy rain. There were supported by the plot curve of the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve as a completely indicating that the three ensemble techniques performed the same results in all regions, none of them gave many different predictions between ensemble techni

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Author

Sofiati, I; Nurlatifah, A

Publisher

IOP Publishing (ISSN 1755-1307)

Published

2019

Language

EN

Field

Agricultural and Biological Sciences (Physical Sciences)