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What is Confidence Indicators and GDP Forecasting about?
The paper investigates the predictive power of consumer and business confidence indicators on GDP movements across four European economies. It finds that both types of confidence indicators are procyclical and significantly predict economic downturns, with specific impacts quantified for the UK. Additionally, the inclusion of confidence indicators reduces forecasting errors for GDP growth estimates, highlighting their importance in economic analysis.
- Author
- zolainney26
- Language
- EN