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Page 1 1 Where are we in the cycle? 1 Bonds pricing an earnings slowdown, equities pricing a 'blue sky scenario' 1 How should you think about positioning? 1 Graphics Title: Figure 1: 24m change in Fed Funds rate and VIX 1 Disclosure 1 Page 2 3 Executive Summary 3 Page 3 4 Where are we in the risk cycle? 4 Fed Funds Rate, earnings growth and volatility 4 Graphics Title: Figure 2: MSCI World earnings growth and realised volatility* 4 Graphics Title: Figure 3: Lagged correlation of changes in the Fed Funds rate and VIX 4 Graphics Title: Figure 4: Fed Funds rate (brought fwd 2 years) and VIX 4 Graphics Title: Figure 5: 24m change in Fed Funds rate (brought fwd 2 years) and 24m change in VIX 4 Page 4 5 Lower EPS growth and the tightening cycle 5 Graphics Title: Figure 6: MSCI World 12m change in NTM EPS 5 Graphics Title: Figure 7: Fed Funds Rate Pricing 5 Page 5 6 Volatility seasonality 6 Graphics Title: Figure 8: Average dispersion by calendar month (% differential from the average regional dispersion) 6 Page 6 7 Interest Rate Sentiment: Equity Markets versus Bond Markets 7 Graphics Title: Figure 9: Fed Funds Rate (FFR) cuts as a % initial FFR (insurance cuts vs. recession cuts) 7 Grap

Author

Stoltz, Pieter

Language

ZH