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Predictability and Finite-time Instability of the Northern Winter Circulation by Franco Molteni; T. N. Palmer is a Earth and Planetary Sciences article available to read on EtoBox.

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## Abstract The finite‐time instability and associated predictability of atmospheric of atmospheric circulations are defined in terms of the largest singular values, and associated singular vectors, of the linear evolution operator determined form given equations of motion. These quantities are calculated in both a barotropic and a three‐level quasi‐geostrophic model, using as basic states realistic large‐scale northern wintertime flows that represent the climatological state, regime composites, and specific realizations of these regimes. for time‐invariant basic states, the singular vectors are compared with the corresponding normal‐mode solutions; it is shown that the perturbations defined (at the initial time) by the singular vectors have much larger growth rates than the normal modes, and possess a more localized spatial structure. The regimes studied have opposite values of the Pacific/North American (PNA) index, and growth rates for the barotropic basis states appear to confirm earlier studies that the barotropic instability of the negative PNA states may be larger than the corresponding positive PNA states. The evolution of the singular‐vector perturbations, with emphasis on

Who reads Predictability and Finite-time Instability of the Northern Winter Circulation?

Author

Franco Molteni; T. N. Palmer

Publisher

John Wiley and Sons; Wiley (John Wiley & Sons); Wiley-Blackwell; Wiley (ISSN 0035-9009)

Published

1993

Language

EN

Field

Earth and Planetary Sciences (Physical Sciences)